they will join the fight. then eventually all of us will have much better. the countdown is on, not just to a potential shutdown, but to those health care laws changes opening up. they are now just 62 hours and one minute away. and despite this growing list of employers shown on investors business daily making major changes due to the law, president obama says it's doing nothing to jobs. >> they said this would be a disaster in terms of jobs. there's no widespread evidence that the affordable care act is hurting jobs. >> so come tuesday, who will right? hi, everyone. i'm brenda buttner. this is "bulls and bears." gary b. smith, tracy byrnes,

jonas farris, john layfield, and bernard witman. welcome to everybody. john, the impact on jobs. >> yes. absolutely. i don't know where the administrati administration's head is. no offense to the administration, but people who are proponents of this are ignoring the facts, from investors business daily, there the express employment ceo bob funk who says, our business is booming right now because people are hiring temporary workers to fill full-time slots to get around obama care. the administration has come out and said that health care costs are already coming down. the fact is, i2009, you started to see this trend before obama care ever kicked in. and the kaiser institute just came out and said 77% of lowering health care costs -- of not expanding, not lowering, but not expanding, came to due to an economic slowdown. there is a huge cost to this. this is not free. and it's not just borne by the individual. this is projected to cost the government $1.4 trillion.

we're going to borrow it from china. and as gary b. points out so well, very few government programs come in under budget. >> bernard, do you agree with that? >> absolutely not. in fact, 94% of employers have said they absolutely will continue to give health care to their employees. so i think that while you have a small field of evidence, widespread, absolutely not. it will be a huge boon to business because americans will have confidence that their health care problems will be covered. they'll be able to get access to preventative care, like 100 million people already have. in states like new york where i am, costs are expected to go down by 50%. and so the fact that people can take their health care with them, won't have pre-existing conditions preventing them from getting the care that they need, won't have annual caps on benefits, lifetime caps on benefits, it's going to be a huge boon to the economy. a cost saver and a driver of business. >> gary b., you've been holding yourself back during that talk. ahead. take him on. >> i wish i could believe

bernard's rosy scenario, but i'm trying to come up with off the top of my head other massive government programs that have been a boon to the economy. i can't think of any. you know, normally as john points out they are horribly inefficient. this is going to be, i think, the big dig, if you will, the boston construction project, that was billions over budget, and years over estimate of all government programs. but the thing i want to key on is one, what's going to happen to premiums? across the board, it looks like younger people will pay a lot more in premiums. it's to be determined how much they'll get back as far as credits, but initially the premiums will go up. two, the even bigger concern is the quality of health care. you know, price waterhouse has already studied this. and some major providers have been overlooked in this whole thing. why? because government wants to restrict suppliers to control costs.

that's fine. the problem is when you restrict suppliers, you restrict the quality of health care. i think the quality of health care is going to go down. i think the lines and the wait to see andists in particular is going to go way up. people are not going to be happy. >> tracy, when it comes to jobs, is hiring going to go down as well? >> it is already. we hear it from home depot. we hear small businesses capping out. i don't know who you talked to. the two businesses you talked to might think it's ok,ut the rest of the world thinks this is a bloody disaster, to the point where d.c. itself is opting out. they are saying, you know, let's not sign up for this just yet to see how it goes. not to mention, brenda, we see it in the jobs numbers. you'll see it i guarantee you this friday in the friday jobs number. we are hiring more part-time people. they are not rolling over to full time. why? because companies do not want to take the risk because they have no idea how much it's going to cost. >> jonas, is it that black and white? you see some pros and cons here. >> yeah. and i don't think anyone will know exactly what's going to happen until it fully implements because there's so many moving

parts and behavioral changes that are hard to predict. so far, it actually looks like it's working because health care prices year over year have gone up less than they have in the last 50 years of this country. i don't know how much of that is because of this plan is taking effect or because it can't go up more than inflation forever. but one thing that's odd, you know, one of the reason that people get jobs is because health care is so expensive and you need a job for health care. that's going to change now with subsidies. you might need more people to start businesses. is that good for the economy or bad versus having to get a job to get health care? i don't know. if they start bad businesses, it's not good for the economy. it's hard to predict at this stage what the long-term effects are going to be. >> john, if costs go up, jobs have to go down, don't they? >> yeah. it's supply and demand. economics 101. jonas, thanks for listening to me. i'll tell you again, the kaiser institute came out and said 77% of the lowering of health care costs had nothing to do with obama care.

it had to do with the slowing economy, which started in '09, way before obama care came around. that's a pure fallacy that is being used conveniently, which politicians do across the board. there's a reason that 35 of 50 states have opted out of these e exchanges. they are too costly. there's reason that signa and united health have opted out. what happened with dodd frank will happen with health care. you had $2 trillion come out of the credit market because there was so much regulation put on businesses, and nothing was done about the financial crisis. the same exact thing is happening with health care right now. you're going to lose coverage like gary b. has just said. >> bernard, why do you think so many states have opted out of the exchanges? are they worried about jobs and the costs? >> i think that they frankly don't want to deal with it, and they are going to lose. big states like new york and california who are operating their own exchanges stand the greatest chance of delivering incredibly high quality of service at much lower cost to

their citizens. frankly, i think it's ababregagz of responsibilities. and the states ought to be ashamed of themselves. if they think they can do a better job, they should do that. >> i don't know how you see that, though. so many doctors areopting out of medicine altogether because they don't want to deal with this. medical student enrollment is down because people don't want to deal with this. this can't be good for care going down the road. >> you know who it's good for? 30 million americans who are going to get coverage who don't have coverage right now. >> we have no idea if it will be good for them. we have no idea if it's good for society in general. >> i think those people who will get coverage are going to think it's ptty good for them. >> if they get it. >> we also have no idea if rising health care prices are necessarily going to legalize employment. let's pretend health care price

lowering has nothing to do with obama care. then why is unemployment going down so much? we had the lowest growth in health care costs in our nation's history because maybe it doesn't have that much to do with hiring in the grand scheme of things. we had heards where health care was going up crazy and much lower unemployment. it's really going to be hard to tell. for one, you're getting more health care. like it's going to go up, but you're going to get more coverage. it's like if the government mandated that your home insurance had re coverage. it's going to make the price go up, but you're getting fire coverage. >> here's what house minority leader nancy pelosi says that obama care will bring you. >> the liberty to pursue your happiness, whether you want to be a photographer, a writer, start your business, be self-employed, change jobs. you know, or you're not job locked, you can follow your passion. >> gary b., she's very optimistic. you can do whatever you want because of obama care. >> she could be talking about

anything. she could be talking about the national highway system. the education system. i'm not sure exactly how that ties to obama care. but let's just take the most optimistic scenario. let's say somehow, to paraphrase jonas, the government somehow can figure out all these moving parts. an impossibility, granted, but they can figure it out. then what you have here is a program that will -- even with all of those moving parts, it will greatly exceed budget. look, you can make an argument that medicare works. and it's way overbudt. same with medicaid. with fraud. social security growth. the government may be able to cut a rube goldberg something together. it's going to blow the deficit wide open. >> ok. that's got to be the last word. thanks, guys. well, who says this guy's cruising for a bruising? neil and the gang on why the guys attacking senator ted cruz are the ones who may take it on the chin.

that's at the bottom of the hour. but up here first, it's all about money. if the government shuts down, is the market, the economy, are they going down with it? or are these fears overblown? we report. you decide. 30

minutes away. keep it on fox. to capitol hill right now, where the house is getting down to business as a potential government shutdown nears. lots of americans wondering what it means to them.

so gary b., if the lights go out, what happens? >> i think the lights will go on in a lot of people's heads because it's not going to be as catastrophic as the administration and everyone makes it out to be. guess what, brenda? the military will keep fighting. air traffic controllers will keep directing planes. the post office will keep delivering mail. social security checks will go out. when you think about it, brenda, all of the things that we want the government really to do and it's mandated to do, those things will continue. yes, the department of education will be closed. you might not get to visit yellow stone national park. so you might have to wait a couple of weeks for a visa. those things will slow down. but the last time we had any length closure in the mid 90s, about 21 days, guess what gdp did? it rose. and the stock market flat for those 21 days. >> and then it went up to 7.2% gdp. bernard, no deal is a big deal?

>> gary is living in a fantasiland. the economy last i checked wasn't what it was in '95. gdp will get cut in half. growth falls to 1.57%. if it's closed for a month, we enter a recession for the quarter. it would be a complete disaster. why? hundreds of thousand sais of employees, no paycheck. active duty military personnel who are fighting and giving -- risking their lives for us will not be paid. states like maryland, for example,$5 million would be lost a day. $15 million in businesses would be lost in maryland alone. so it would be a complete disaster. and by the way, the last time this happened, i was working for bill clinton. and guess what happened? they re-elected him as president. >> what's this scare tactic? first of all, the government will never be shut down for a month. if it shuts down for a day or two, maybe, and that's just to make a point.

last time this happened, the market was flat and then it went up. it means nothing. these nonessentials will be closed, but these numbers coming out of wherever you're getting them, i've heard them too. gdp falls to 1.4%. scary, scary, scary. it is all scare tactics. it means nothing at the end of the day. >> jonas, you have any scare tactics? >> first of all, i think tracy just jinxed it. there's no wood down here in miami. you know, look, is it as bad as they are saying? no. but gary is acting like the government is good at shutting down. they are not good at anything. when they go into shutdown mood, it's so stupid, they lose more money than they save. they don't cut everyone's social security check, which would help balance the budget. they shut down things that are profitable to the government. you said visas. when you give out visas, people come and spend money.

you're going to turn that off because the person is not in the office? they say some things are important and some things are not. what makes money to our economy and what doesn't? let's keep those going. that's not the defense department. too bad. that's why it's bad for the economy. >> john, what do you think? >> bernard got his numbers out of the sports page somewhere. listen, the military is going to continue to get paid, just like gary said. they are going to continue to be active. they will continue to be out there fighting. the numbers, guys, surprise, surprise, mark sandy is pretty much in the administration's pocket. everything he says pretty much fits the administration's status quo. look, president obama said we're not going to default on the debt. president obama also said he wouldn't let detroit go bankrupt. they bailed out the automakers, and they went bankrupt. detroit is in bankruptcy now. i don't think it will be that long, and it will be a dent on the economy, not some

cataclysmic event. >> stay tuned, because there will be a lot more of that debate on "cavuto on business." forget owning our debt. is a bigger worry that china now owns one of america's biggest food producers?

here is a major headline you might have missed. u.s.-based smithfield foods, the largest pork producer in the world, is now owned by a chinese company. the $7.1 billion deal finalized

this week, making it the largest takeover of a u.s. company by a chinese firm ever. and, tracy, you say this raises some major food safety concerns. >> they have no rules, brenda. who puts chemicals in pigs? this is crazy stuff. the upshot for americans is that most of the smithfield stuff will be made here in the u.s. but if they start to farm stuff overseas, there's no guidelines. they can do whatever they want out there. i think that's frightening. >> gary b., you're not so worried. >> i am not. look, the reason that the chinese are making this acquisition is so they can get more pork for themselves. you know, people like chuck schumer are also against this, like acy. well, i don't know what chuck schumer is worried about. it's still going to be overseen by these great government agencies like the u.s.d.a. and the -- i forget the other one, i'm sorry. but my point is, this is going to be overseen. if the chinese wanted somehow to poison us, they already would have done that through 90% of

the tilapia or apple juice we get from them. >> china has been plagued by major food-processing scandals. >> yeah. and one of the problems is they don't own brands like smithfield. consumers will have to deal with your mistakes and ruin your company. the problem with china is they make the products that are then resold in america. i'll take it one further than gary. i don't think major brands in america need the government doing consumer safety. maybe other regulations. because disney can't make a dangerous ride. they'll get sued. they don't need that much oversight. in china, they need it. in small companies or a fly-by-night fair needs government regulation, but not a major name. they would go out of business quickly if they did something unsafe. >> we should be very worried because i agree with tracy on something.

>> that's serious. >> the usda has no authorization to do inspections in china. the fda does not. and a big concern is if they start taking meat that is raised there, processing it, there and then bringing it back here, then we have no ia of the standards used in the plant. and that's nopoint of origin labeling requirement. so consumers won't be able to tell if the meat was processed here or in china. what sort of situation was going on with the factories. and, you know, jonas, you may say eventually they'll get sued, but that's small consolation to the people who could get sick and died as a result of lax safety and inspection standards in china. >> the government is good at inspecting? no. it seems like the marketplace catches it more than the government inspectors to, which is my point. >> are you ready to eat some smithfield bacon, john? >> i'm a good southern boy, but i'm not so sure i want it coming

from china. that's why you put quality controls on stuff coming in. this is opening up for us to send beef on china as well. that's what happens in a global economy. i think with quality control we'll be ok. thanks, guys. and thanks to bernard for joining us. we appreciate it. what this high school football coach did to his team that someone here says americans

prediction.

gary b., take it away. >> it's so stretch, but for the zillionth time in a row, the debt crisis will be resolved monday morning. the government will be open. and i think the stock market is going to go up from here. i thinkt's 10% on the upside by spy. >> john, bull or bear? >> i'll bet on gary b. but not on sanity in d.c. i'm a bear. >> jonas? >> word the government is not going to make good on its debt? do you know if you buy zero coupon bonds they don't owe you money for 30 years? problem solved. my clients own it. that's the way through the crisis. up 20%. >> gary b., do you think you should own it? >> this bounces around a lot, and it trades very thinly. i do not like it. >> john, your prediction? >> healthy mcdonald's is a great p.r. move. you can keep the salad. i have never seen a big rabbit. but the stock can be up 20%. >> bull or bear? >> bear. too cheap. >> tracy, your prediction?

>> so you talked to a coach who benched his entire team for cyber bullying and being disrespectful. that's what we should do to washington, get them out. coming up next, neil cavuto. "cavuto on business." here's what happens in washington when you rock the boat. they try to throw you overboard. ted cruz just found out the hard way because it wasn't just democrats hoping he would shut up. it was a lot of republicans hoping that he would just about drown. welcome, everybody. i'm neil cavuto. and i saw it in washington for myself. ted cruz can certainly talk and talk and talk. now, i don't know whether the senator's yap-a-thon against the health care law proves he's presidential material, but i do know a guy who can talk for 21 hours straight without a potty break proves he is certainly tv anchor material. but that is not what cruz's critics were saying a